Shortly after noon on December 10, 1949, Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek boarded an airplane in Chengdu. Mao Zedong and his Red Army were rapidly advancing on the few positions on the Chinese mainland still held by Chiang’s Nationalists. Chiang and his son made the short trip to the island of Taiwan, 110 miles from the mainland, which he would rule for the rest of his life.
Over the preceding ten days, crates of gold, most of the officer corps and somewhere between one and two-and-a-half million civilians made their way to Taiwan. Even so, Chiang’s most important asset was the support of many influential Americans.
President Truman was not among those supporters. He deeply distrusted Chiang. At the same time, his opponents often accused Truman of being “soft on Communism.” However, he could not afford the maelstrom of criticism that would follow the U.S. abandonment of Nationalist China.
China Salivates
Over the remaining decades of a long life-ending on April 5, 1975-Chiang and his followers built Taiwan into an economic powerhouse.
To the Communists in Beijing, Taiwan glistens like a jewel in a well-guarded museum case. They can see it and almost touch it. But so far, Taiwan has eluded Red China’s grasp.
As recently as 2020, many predicted that China might soon displace the United States as the world’s most powerful nation. COVID and a collapsing population make those dreams increasingly distant. Seizing Taiwan’s assets could help restore that once-shining future.
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Differing Styles of Leadership
Xi Jinping’s most famous predecessor, Mao Zedong, aspired to be a kind of philosopher-king. He was confident that, eventually, the Taiwanese would rush into the Communist embrace. The men who replaced Mao-Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao-kept lower profiles. Still ardent Communists, they soft-pedaled theory to keep American dollars flowing. They tolerated Taiwan because it was one of the funnels for American cash.
Xi is very different. In his mind, success can only come through expansion and intimidation. So, he builds airbases in the South China Sea, takes a dominant role in the new BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) alliance system, and offers the undeveloped world his “Belt and Road Initiative”-expanding Chinese influence by financing infrastructure improvements in Asia, Africa and the South Pacific.
Major Hurdles to Clear
However, on his doorstep, Taiwan continues to evade his control. He views the island nation like a Marathon champion regarding a broken ankle. It is small, it hurts and he can’t win unless it goes away.
Xi’s long-range strategy is remarkably simple. He wants to make the U.S. dependent on China so that when he takes over Taiwan, the U.S. will be in no position to object.
However, there are roadblocks. Xi is currently 71 years old. He could still have years, but he has to know that his mental and physical powers will gradually diminish. Moreover, his image in the U.S. is declining. Last, his internal difficulties increase.
A man as intelligent as Xi has to be very concerned about Russia’s experience and U.S. support for Ukraine. If the U.S. supports a country that was part of the Soviet Union until 1991, how much more will it support its longtime ally, Taiwan?
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History points in several directions.
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Since 1949, China’s official position is that there is “one China,” and Taiwan is part of it. Therefore, relations between Beijing and Taipei (Taiwan’s capital) are “internal matters.” Interference from other nations is unacceptable.
For twenty-two years, there was a stand-off. The U.S. would not abandon Taiwan, and Mao would not negotiate.
By 1971, President Nixon eagerly wanted a “diplomatic breakthrough” in China. In that spirit, he acquiesced in Taiwan’s expulsion from the United Nations. The U.S. could have vetoed the move. Mao’s stubbornness made a compromise in which both countries could be members impossible. The President sacrificed Taiwan in the interest of placating the Communists.
The second act of this tawdry little drama occurred in 1979. President Jimmy Carter decided to take Nixon’s policy one step further and granted official recognition to Red China. The State Department degraded Taiwan’s embassy to become the “Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office”.
Nonetheless, there was substantial opposition to President Carter’s action. Congress passed-and the President reluctantly signed-the “Taiwan Relations Act.” The United States pledged to “make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services…to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capacity.”
Waiting Impatiently
This ambiguous-and seemingly fragile-situation has endured for forty-five years. Taiwan’s status remains precarious-dependent on the “mood” in Washington and Beijing, and Beijing’s mood is changing. Xi could easily decide that he faces a “now or never” situation. If he determines that success is possible, he may attempt to take over Taiwan
Is that likely?
Matt Pottinger was deputy national security advisor from 2019-2021. He spelled out his concerns in an article published recently by the Hoover Institute. His concerns are many.
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- Xi refuses to hold any negotiations with Taiwan’s government.
- Xi makes no secret that he finds the current situation unacceptable and is willing to use force to change it.
- There can be no doubt that Xi is preparing for war and doing it quickly. Mr. Pottinger notes an uncomfortable parallel, “Those capabilities constitute the largest peacetime buildup by a country since Nazi Germany in the 1930s.”
- Xi routinely violates Taiwan’s territorial waters.
At this point, though, Xi has not taken any irreversible action. He is harassing Taiwan but has-so far-opted against an invasion. In that fact, there is some hope. As Mr. Pottinger explains, “Xi Jinping is not a reckless gambler…. [Xi Jinping’s] not going to fling [his] dice across the table and engage in war unless he’s extremely confident in the result ahead of time.”
Taiwan’s Assets
Even if Beijing decides to attack, Taiwan will be far from defenseless. It is highly unlikely that the United States would stand aside. Nor would other nations in the Pacific. The Japanese, Australians and Filipinos understand that a successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan threatens their security. All are watching carefully and taking preventive action.
Another important factor is that Taiwan would be fighting a defensive war. It does not need to conquer Red China to win; it just needs to survive. Admittedly, that is a tall order when facing a well-armed and determined foe. However, the ability to defend is far more certain than the ability to invade. As Mr. Pottinger points out, “Numerically, it takes roughly three times as many soldiers and forces to take a defended position as it takes to defend that position.”
China’s Weaknesses
Xi can also see that his most prominent potential ally, Russia, has been severely weakened by its Ukrainian misadventure. Any trust he may have had in the quality of Russian military resources must have been shaken by Russia’s inability to conquer its far weaker but
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more determined neighbor.
Additionally, a September 2024 article in The Wall Street Journal describes a situation that has to shake Xi’s confidence in his military. According to the WSJ, the most advanced submarine in the Chinese fleet sank in a riverfront shipyard near Wuhan.
“‘Nuclear-powered submarine technology is one area where China has lagged, remains relatively weak and is trying to play catch-up,’ said Nick Childs, senior fellow for naval forces and maritime security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London-based think tank. ‘While the causes remain unclear, the mishap would at least ‘raise new questions about the design, quality control and training involved in China’s efforts to rapidly develop its submarine force,’ Childs said.”
The concerns aren’t limited to naval vessels. Many of China’s weapons are largely untried. Will their rockets have the range, guidance, and destructive power that the military tells him that they do? Can China’s generals lead an army against a disciplined, resourceful, well-equipped enemy? Is China’s food supply sufficient? Is its infrastructure up to transporting men and weapons at a moment’s notice? Such questions cannot be answered definitively.
A Time for Resolve
Conversely, American weapons are well-tested and reliable. Events in the Ukraine conflict and that in Israel confirm that assessment.
China wants to become the most powerful nation on earth. Xi wants to see the United States as a spent force, just as the Romans were in the fifth century and the British were after World War II. Such transfers of power are rare, but they have happened before.
At this point, the United States has the most substantial hand to play, and cannot afford to let its guard down or determination wane.
Photo Credit: © Alexey Novikov- stock.adobe.com